切萨皮克湾鱼水产养殖业的气候适应性和利能力门
Matt A Weber1, Lisa A Wainger1, Jeremy M Testa1
1University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science, Chesapeake Biological Laboratory, Solomons, MD, USA.
Journal of environmental management
|November 22, 2024
概括
气候变化可能会降低贝类水产养殖的利,即使在最佳管理下. 特定地点的条件和当前的空间变化对于利能力比未来的气候预测更为关键.
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学和生态学
- 气候变化科学 气候变化科学
- 水产养殖经济学 水产养殖经济学
背景情况:
- 沿海贝类水产养殖面临气候变化的不确定性,影响天气和海平面.
- 由于环境条件的变化,养殖的利能力受到威胁.
研究的目的:
- 在气候变化下模拟贝类水产养殖的世纪中叶利能力变化.
- 为切萨皮克湾整合气候,水力动力学,生物地球化学,生态学和经济模型.
- 使用随机动态编程 (SDP) 开发一个最佳的种植者战略.
主要方法:
- 气候变化,河口过程,生长/死亡率和经济学的综合建模.
- 开发了底部和容器培养系统的单独模型.
- 利用随机动态编程 (SDP) 在不确定性下进行最佳决策.
主要成果:
- 预计生长和死亡率的高空间变化.
- 气候变化对水质的影响很小,死亡率变化很小.
- 大多数场地预测,由于粮食供应减少,利能力下降,底部文化更有弹性.
结论:
- 最佳的管理选择可能无法抵消气候变化对利能力的影响.
- 目前水产养殖条件的空间变化比未来的气候预测更有影响.
- SDP提供了针对特定地点的适应性管理策略,以提高水产养殖的弹性.
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