澳大利亚毒贩的犯罪生涯
Don Weatherburn1, Michael Farrell2, Wai-Yin Wan3
1National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre, University of New South Wale, Australia.
The International journal on drug policy
|November 22, 2024
概括
很少有毒品贩子在第一次定罪后停止犯罪活动. 诸如年龄和以前的犯罪等因素会影响重犯,根据药物类型有很大的差异. 这凸显了贩毒者复杂的犯罪生涯.
科学领域:
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
- 法医心理学 法医心理学
- 毒品政策分析 毒品政策分析
背景情况:
- 关于贩毒者的犯罪生涯的研究有限.
- 了解停止和重犯模式对于有效的干预至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定第一次定罪后毒品贩运的停止率.
- 确定影响重犯概率,速度和发生率的因素.
- 评估参与非毒品犯罪的程度.
主要方法:
- 在澳大利亚新南威尔士州 (2000-2023) 分析了3020起毒品贩运案件.
- 利用描述性统计,治疗分数回归和负二项式回归.
- 控制年龄,第一次定罪年龄和以前的定罪年龄.
主要成果:
- 在一个特定的男性人口群体 (年龄在30-39岁,第一次被判刑19-35岁,海洛因贩运,中等毒品/酒精得分) 中,观察到31%的"治愈"率.
- 与可卡因贩运者相比,ATS,海洛因,大麻和狂喜贩运者的重犯风险高出62-82%.
- 毒品贩子从事各种罪行,之前或之后的毒品定罪很少.
结论:
- 需要进一步的研究,以了解毒品贩运是主要收入来源还是许多犯罪活动之一.
- 调查不同毒品贩子之间违法风险和频率不同的原因是必不可少的.
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