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非洲地下水中的化物污染:使用堆叠组合技术进行预测建模.

Usman Sunusi Usman1, Yousif Hassan Mohamed Salh1, Bing Yan1

  • 1School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences Wuhan, 388 Lumo Road, Wuhan 430074, China.

The Science of the total environment
|November 22, 2024
PubMed
概括

非洲地下水化物污染影响数百万人,造成牙和骨化等严重的健康风险. 一种先进的集体学习模型预测了高风险区域,确定了和碳酸是造成这场公共卫生危机的关键因素.

关键词:
非洲 非洲 非洲化物的化物.地下水的地下水.物理化学参数 物理化学参数堆叠集体学习 堆叠集体学习

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科学领域:

  • 环境科学 环境科学
  • 公共卫生 公共卫生
  • 水文地质学 水文地质学

背景情况:

  • 地下水的化污染是非洲重要的公共卫生问题,由自然地质和气候因素以及人类活动加剧.
  • 高化物水平,特别是在东非裂谷,超过世界卫生组织 (WHO) 建议的1.5毫克/升,导致严重的健康状况,如牙和骨化.
  • 包括南非,尼日利亚和埃塞俄比亚在内的各种非洲国家数百万人受到这种广泛的污染的影响.

研究的目的:

  • 预测化物 (F-) 在非洲地下水中的分布,使用复杂的堆叠集体学习模型.
  • 确定影响化物污染的关键生理化学变量,并评估面临风险的人口.
  • 在地下水数据有限的地区,为健康风险评估提供指导.

主要方法:

  • 开发了一种先进的堆叠组合学习模型,集成了11个地下水生化变量和6270个观察到的化物度数据点.
  • 该模型采用了多个基础学习器,包括随机树,树袋,随机森林 (RF),决策树 (DT),XGBoost (XGB) 和额外树 (ET),其中Naïve Bayes作为元分析器.
  • 该模型获得了0.86的曲线下面积 (AUC) 评分,表明其在表示地下水化物异质分布方面的准确性.

主要成果:

  • 该研究预测,20-35%的东非和10%的西非面临超过世卫组织化物限制的风险,可能影响约8000万人.
  • 化物污染的区域差异很大,在西非,东非,南非,北非和中非各个地区的范围有很大差异.
  • (Na+) 和碳酸 (HCO3-) 被确定为整个非洲大陆化物污染的主要驱动因素, (Ca2+) 和 (Cl-) 也在某些地区有所贡献.

结论:

  • 开发的整体模型有效地预测了地下水的化物分布,并确定了非洲各地的高风险区域.
  • 这些发现强调了与化物污染相关的大量公共卫生负担,并强调了需要有针对性的干预措施的必要性.
  • 了解化物的主要化学驱动因素和空间分布对于有效的地下水管理和受影响地区的公共卫生保护至关重要.