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洪水和干旱的复合风险在多危险的水域:透露通过水力动力学和统计学建模和新的双变体风险分类器透露关联
Mayank Tyagi1, Hrishikesh Singh1, Dev Anand Thakur1
1Department of Water Resources Development and Management, Indian Institute of Technology Roorkee, Roorkee 247667, India.
The Science of the total environment
|November 22, 2024
概括
洪水和干旱是水文循环的两个极端,构成复合风险. 本研究引入了双变风险分类器 (BRC),以整合洪水和干旱风险,以更好地减少灾害风险.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 灾害风险管理 灾害风险管理
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 洪水和干旱是水文循环的关键阶段,具有重大的全球社会经济影响.
- 有限的研究已经解决了因洪水和干旱同时发生而产生的复合风险.
- 由于它们的时间尺度不同,了解这些水极端是具有挑战性的.
研究的目的:
- 在全球减少灾害风险的框架内,制定一个全面的框架来评估复合洪水和干旱风险.
- 引入一种新型的双变风险分类器 (BRC),用于整合洪水和干旱的边际和复合影响.
- 确定易受这些复合风险影响的群体和地区.
主要方法:
- 使用LISFLOOD-FP的水力动力学驱动方法来模拟洪水危险.
- 采用统计建模,使用标准化降水蒸发透气指数 (SPEI) 进行干旱危险评估.
- 综合洪水和干旱数据来推导复合危险并验证双变风险分类器 (BRC).
主要成果:
- 该研究成功地推导出了复合洪水和干旱危险,确定了同步的人口暴露.
- 两变风险分类器 (BRC) 框架在整合各种危险数据方面表现出有效性.
- 观察到人口与复合风险高度同步,突出了相互关联的脆弱性.
结论:
- 开发的框架提供了一种新的方法来减少水极端的全球灾害风险.
- 调查结果强调需要综合灾害风险管理和弹性基础设施规划.
- 该研究在印度的一个流域的成功应用表明了全球多危险应用的潜力.
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