环境监测对于抗击流行病的价值
Pedro Nascimento de Lima1, Sarah Karr2, Jing Zhi Lim2
1RAND Corporation, Arlington, VA, USA. plima@rand.org.
Scientific reports
|November 23, 2024
概括
环境采样监测 (ESS) 提供了早期的流行病警告,可能挽救生命并降低成本. 扩大ESS是有价值的,特别是对于更致命的病原体,即使在罕见的疫情中也提供了净收益.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 环境采样监测 (ESS) 技术,如废水基因组监测和空气传感器在COVID-19大流行期间获得了吸引力.
- 欧洲社会统计系统为公共卫生应对提供了关键数据,但其覆盖范围不一致.
- 决策者需要指导如何扩大和维持ESS的努力.
研究的目的:
- 引入一个模型来量化ESS系统在疫情应对中的价值.
- 以COVID-19作为基准来评估ESS的经济和公共卫生效益.
- 探索ESS值如何受到病原体特征和干预有效性的影响.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个模型来量化ESS系统的价值,提供领先的流行病学指标.
- 在第一年模拟了一种类似于COVID-19的流行病情景.
- 分析了生物和社会参数对ESS价值的影响.
主要成果:
- 具有5天早期预警优势的ESS系统可以将死亡人数减少10%,并在COVID-19类流行病的第一年每人获得1,450美元的净货币收益.
- 随着病原体的传染性和期限,ESS的价值会增加,这取决于有效的公共卫生干预措施.
- 对于不经常出现的病原体,ESS系统即使在长期维持的情况下也显示出净积极的益处.
结论:
- 在疫情防控和应对方面,ESS系统为公共卫生和经济提供了重要的价值.
- 这些发现支持ESS覆盖范围的战略扩展和扩展,以最大限度地提高收益.
- 通过ESS,可以确定病原体的优先级,并为监测系统分配资源.
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