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地下水位对大型流域中低频气候变化的敏感性
Lisa Baulon1, Manuel Fossa2, Nicolas Massei2
1BRGM, 3 av. C. Guillemin, 45060 Cedex 02 Orleans, France; Normandie Univ, UNIROUEN, UNICAEN, CNRS, M2C, 76000 Rouen, France.
The Science of the total environment
|November 23, 2024
概括
低频气候变化的变化显著影响地下水位 (GWL),影响干旱和洪水极端. 修改降水模式显示,GWL可以移动高达5米,改变洪水和干旱的发生和严重程度.
科学领域:
- 水文学和水文地质学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 环境建模环境建模
背景情况:
- 地下水位 (GWL) 在多个时间尺度中表现出变化.
- 低频气候变化 (年间到十年间) 显著影响GWL变异.
- 包括极端在内的GWL对改变的大规模气候强迫的反应仍然是一个悬而未决的问题.
研究的目的:
- 评估地下水位对跨年至十年气候变化变化变化的敏感性.
- 调查修改降水变量的影响GWL动态在塞纳河流域.
- 在不同的气候强迫下量化GWL极端的潜在变化.
主要方法:
- 实施了一种经验数值方法来评估GWL对降水变化的敏感性.
- 在跨年 (2-4年,5-8年) 和十年 (15年) 时间尺度上降水的变异光谱含量.
- 利用CaWaQS模型与扰乱降水数据来模拟GWL反应,并比较光谱含量,平均值,方差和极端值.
主要成果:
- 低频降水变化增加导致GWL增加了多达5米.
- 降低低频降水变化导致GWL降低高达5米.
- 降水变化的变化显著影响了地下水洪水和干旱的发生和严重程度.
结论:
- 关于低频变量的偏差气候数据可能会导致GWL模拟中的重大偏差.
- 未来的GWL,特别是干旱和洪水动态,可能会受到低频气候变异性变化的重大影响.
- 该研究强调了气候变化时间尺度在理解和预测地下水系统行为的关键作用.
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