在美国西部从大规模环境中使用可解释的神经网络预测云到地面的闪电.
Dmitri A Kalashnikov1,2, Frances V Davenport3, Zachary M Labe4,5
1School of the Environment Washington State University Vancouver WA USA.
概括
卷积神经网络准确地预测美国西部的云至地面闪电日. 热力学变量如湿静能比率和失效率是关键预测因素,对于气候建模和野火风险评估至关重要.
科学领域:
- 大气科学 大气科学
- 人工智能的人工智能
- 气候建模气候模型
背景情况:
- 闪电是美国西部野火的主要原因.
- 准确预测闪电对于野火管理和气候变化影响评估至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和训练卷积神经网络 (CNN),用于预测美国西部的云对地面 (CG) 闪电事件.
- 用CNN来识别驱动CG闪电预测的关键气象变量.
主要方法:
- 在美国西部的1°x1°网格单元中训练了285个CNN模型,使用重新分析数据 (1995-2022).
- 利用层级相关性传播 (LRP) 来确定气象预测因素对CG闪电预测的重要性.
主要成果:
- CNN模型在预测CG闪电日 (中位数AUC=0.8) 和捕获年间变化 (中位数r=0.87) 方面表现出高技能.
- 表面湿静电能与自由热层和湿静电能的比率以及700-500hPa的失效率被确定为93%-96%的CNN最相关的预测因素.
结论:
- CNNs提供了一种可靠的方法来预测CG闪电,并可用于气候模型中的闪电参数化.
- 了解未来的CG闪电趋势对于评估和管理美国西部野火风险至关重要.
相关概念视频
Precipitation Processes
426
The experimental conditions in a gravimetric analysis should be optimized to maximize the particle size and purity of the obtained precipitate. Ideally, the concentration of the precipitating reagent should be low with effective stirring to maintain low relative supersaturation for the growth of large crystals. In homogeneous precipitation, the precipitant is slowly generated by a chemical reaction in the solution to avoid local reagent excesses. For example, urea decomposes gradually to...
426
End Point Prediction: Gran Plot
278
A Gran plot is used to predict the equivalence volume or endpoint of a potentiometric or acid-base titration without reaching the endpoint. Typically, titration data is collected as a function of the titrant's volume up to a point less than the equivalence volume and then transformed into a linear format. The straight line is extended to the x-axis, indicating the necessary titrant volume to achieve the equivalence point.
For potentiometric titration, the Gran plot is created by plotting...
For potentiometric titration, the Gran plot is created by plotting...
278
Precipitation and Co-precipitation
1.7K
Precipitation and coprecipitation methods can be used to separate a mixture of ions in a solution. In qualitative inorganic analysis, ions that form sparingly soluble precipitates with the same reagent are separated based on the differences in solubility products. For example, consider the separation of Cu(II) and Fe(II) ions by precipitation as insoluble sulfides. First, copper(II) sulfide is precipitated by the addition of acidic H2S, where the dissociation of H2S is suppressed. Adding H2S...
1.7K
Force Classification
1.1K
Forces play a crucial role in the study of physics and engineering. They are essential in describing the motion, behavior, and equilibrium of objects in the physical world. Forces can be classified based on their origin, type, and direction of action.
Contact and non-contact forces are two of the most widely used categories of forces. As the name suggests, contact forces require physical contact between two objects to act upon each other. Examples of contact forces include frictional,...
Contact and non-contact forces are two of the most widely used categories of forces. As the name suggests, contact forces require physical contact between two objects to act upon each other. Examples of contact forces include frictional,...
1.1K
Prediction Intervals
2.2K
The interval estimate of any variable is known as the prediction interval. It helps decide if a point estimate is dependable.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
However, the point estimate is most likely not the exact value of the population parameter, but close to it. After calculating point estimates, we construct interval estimates, called confidence intervals or prediction intervals. This prediction interval comprises a range of values unlike the point estimate and is a better predictor of the observed sample value, y.
2.2K
Calculations of Electric Potential II
1.6K
An electric dipole is a system of two equal but opposite charges, separated by a fixed distance. This system is used to model many real-world systems, including atomic and molecular interactions. One of these systems is the water molecule, but only under certain circumstances. These circumstances are met inside a microwave oven, where electric fields with alternating directions make the water molecules change orientation. This vibration is equivalent to heat at the molecular level.
Consider a...
Consider a...
1.6K


