结合多湖模型组合和多域CORDEX气候数据组合,以评估对塞万湖的气候变化影响
Muhammed Shikhani1, Johannes Feldbauer2, Robert Ladwig3
1Department of Lake Research Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ) Magdeburg Germany.
概括
全球变暖将显著加热湖泊,增加表面和底部温度,并扩展分层. 这种气候变化影响了湖泊混合动力,影响了热体制.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 气候建模 气候建模
- 临界技术 临界技术
背景情况:
- 全球变暖改变了湖泊的热力学和混合模式.
- 气候变化对水生生态系统产生重大影响.
- 了解这些变化对于水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和应用双组合工作流程,将气候和湖泊模型结合起来.
- 调查气候变化对塞万湖热力学影响.
- 量化模型对气候变化预测不确定性的贡献.
主要方法:
- 利用来自CORDEX数据 (多个领域,场景,GCM-RCM组合) 的大量气候模拟.
- 强迫多个水力动力学湖泊模型与气候模拟.
- 在整个建模链中量化跨模型不确定性贡献.
主要成果:
- 预计到21世纪末,塞万湖的表面和底部将显著变暖 (RCP 8.5).
- 预计更长的分层周期 (+55天) 和冰盖消失,改变混合制度.
- 确定冬季冷却不足是关键的漏洞.
结论:
- 双组合工作流提供了可靠的气候变化影响预测和不确定性估计.
- 该工作流可用于其他湖泊系统的气候影响研究.
- 塞凡湖对预计的气候变化非常脆弱,影响其热结构和混合.
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