开发和验证一个基于问卷预测患胃癌的风险的诺姆图:一个横截面研究
Zhangsen Huang1, Songyao Chen1, Songcheng Yin1,2
1Digestive Medicine Center, The Seventh Affiliated Hospital of Sun Yat-sen University, Shenzhen, China.
Frontiers in oncology
|November 26, 2024
概括
这项研究开发了一种使用六个风险因素预测胃癌风险的诺姆图. 该工具有效地识别需要进一步检查的个体,帮助早期检测并降低死亡率.
科学领域:
- 在瘤学瘤学.
- 医疗信息学 医疗信息学
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 早期发现胃癌 (GC) 对于降低死亡率至关重要.
- 一个预测模型可以帮助识别高风险的个人GC.
- 这项研究的重点是开发用于GC风险评估的nomogram.
研究的目的:
- 构建和验证胃癌风险的预测名图.
- 确定胃粘膜中瘤病变的关键独立危险因素.
- 评估开发的诺莫图的临床实用性和成本效益.
主要方法:
- 总共有4379名参与者参与了模型开发,内部验证和外部验证.
- 使用LASSO回归和多变量逻辑回归来确定风险因素.
- 使用AUC,校准图表和决策曲线分析 (DCA) 评估了名图的性能.
主要成果:
- 确定了六个独立的风险因素:年龄,性别,酒精消费,吸烟,教育程度和HP感染状况.
- 诺米图实现了AUC值为0.701 (训练),0.657 (内部验证) 和0.699 (外部验证).
- 与现有策略相比,名图表显示了良好的校准和优越的临床益处.
结论:
- 开发的诺米图是预测胃癌风险的方便和经济有效的工具.
- 它可以在胃镜检查前作为有效的预查工具.
- 诺米图有助于早期检测瘤病变,可能降低GC死亡率.
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