结核病后患者中阻塞性疾病的发生率,危险因素和预测模型
Wenjun Chang1, Zheng Li2, Qianqian Liang1
1Department of Fourth Clinical College, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, 830054, People's Republic of China.
International journal of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
|November 26, 2024
概括
结核相关阻塞性肺病 (TOPD) 影响了超过40%的未经治疗的肺结核 (PTB) 患者. 早期检测有助于使用年龄,BMI,ESR和症状持续时间的预测模型.
科学领域:
- 肺部病理学 肺部病理学
- 传染性疾病 传染性疾病
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 肺结核 (PTB) 可以导致长期的呼吸道并发症.
- 结核相关阻塞性肺病 (TOPD) 是PTB的显著后续.
- 了解前未接受治疗的PTB患者的TOPD发病率和风险因素对于管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了确定TOPD在未经治疗的PTB患者中的发病率.
- 为了确定与TOPD发展相关的风险因素.
- 开发一个用于早期TOPD检测和管理的预测模型.
主要方法:
- 一项前性队列研究在中国新疆对159名未接受过治疗的PTB患者进行了一年的跟踪.
- 收集的数据包括人口统计,病史,实验室结果,放射学发现和肺功能.
- 使用多变量逻辑回归和LASSO回归来识别风险因素并构建预测模型.
主要成果:
- 在随访期间,TOPD的发病率为43.4% (69/159名患者).
- 严重的TOPD风险因素包括年龄较大,较低的体重指数,ESR升高和症状持续时间较长.
- 预测模型在0.435的截止值下实现了89%的灵敏度和83%的特异性.
结论:
- 在新疆的未经治疗的PTB患者中,TOPD的患病率很高.
- 鉴定的风险因素和预测模型可以帮助早期发现TOPD.
- 改进的早期检测和干预策略可能会导致PTB和TOPD患者的治疗结果更好.
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