2024年7月的特朗普暗杀企图之后,党派暴力的团体支持率下降,团体团结度增加
Derek E Holliday1, Yphtach Lelkes2, Sean J Westwood3
1Department of Political Science, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305.
概括
暗杀唐纳德·特朗普的企图并没有增加党派敌意或对政治暴力的支持. 相反,共和党人对暴力对民主党人的支持减少,党派依恋增加.
科学领域:
- 政治科学 政治科学是指政治学.
- 社会心理学 社会心理学
- 美国政治 美国政治
背景情况:
- 试图暗杀唐纳德·特朗普的事件引起了人们对政治暴力升级的担忧.
- 政治人物回应了团结和降级的呼吁,并继续发起煽动性的言论.
研究的目的:
- 评估暗杀企图对美国党派敌意和对政治暴力的支持的影响.
- 测量事件发生前后党派身份和敌意的变化.
主要方法:
- 利用了一项在暗杀未遂之前和之后进行的全国调查.
- 雇员小组和横截面中断时间序列分析,每日调查覆盖范围很大.
- 分析了3,572名试验前,703名试验后和690名小组参与者的数据.
主要成果:
- 没有证据表明暗杀企图增加了党派紧张局势或支持报复性暴力.
- 观察到共和党人对反对民主党人的党派暴力的支持显著下降.
- 发现共和党人的党派依恋度有所增加,而民主党人的态度没有显著变化.
结论:
- 极端的党派暴力并没有立即加剧美国党派之间现有的敌意.
- 尽管普遍存在负面情绪,但突出的暴力事件并没有导致支持暴力的激增.
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