相关实验视频
Updated: Jun 6, 2025
08:22
A Preclinical Model of Exertional Heat Stroke in Mice
Published on: July 1, 2021
3.7K
全球地区热浪热点的全球出现超过了气候模型模拟
Kai Kornhuber1,2,3, Samuel Bartusek2,4, Richard Seager2
1International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg 2361, Austria.
概括
气候模型低估了极端高温趋势,无法预测全球气温的快速上升. 迫切需要温室气体减排来应对这些意想不到的气候影响.
科学领域:
- 气候科学是气候科学.
- 对极端天气事件的分析.
- 气候建模 气候建模
背景情况:
- 最近破纪录的天气事件质疑当前气候模型的准确性.
- 模型可能无法充分预测气候变化对人类生活,基础设施和生态系统的前所未有的影响.
研究的目的:
- 评估最先进的气候模型在预测极端高温趋势方面的准确性.
- 为了将模型预测与观察到的温度数据进行比较,特别是极端的表面温度.
主要方法:
- 使用再分析数据,分析全球极端高温趋势.
- 观察到的趋势与当前变暖情景下的多种气候模型的预测进行比较.
- 评估模型在捕捉极端温度变化的大小和频率方面的性能.
主要成果:
- 气候模型显著低估了全球极端热量大小的观察到的增加,对于每十年超过0.5°C的趋势,该趋势的四倍.
- 与重新分析数据相比,模型显示显著增加极端温度趋势的比例较低.
- 虽然温和趋势通常被重现,但模型也低估了在某些地区观察到的强收缩趋势.
结论:
- 目前的气候模型不足以预测极端热量增加的全部程度.
- 需要进一步的研究来了解极端高温的驱动因素.
- 快速缓解温室气体排放对于防止意外气候事件造成的危害升级至关重要.
相关概念视频
02:46Quantifying Heat
53.9K
Thermal Energy
53.9K
01:50Global Climate Change
24.2K
Throughout its ~4.5 billion year history, the Earth has experienced periods of warming and cooling. However, the current drastic increase in global temperatures is well outside of the Earth’s cyclic norms, and evidence for human-caused global climate change is compelling. Paleoclimatology, the study of ancient climate conditions, provides ample evidence for human-caused global climate change by comparing recent conditions with those in the past.
24.2K
01:20Mechanisms of Heat Transfer II
3.2K
In convection, thermal energy is carried by the large-scale flow of matter. Ocean currents and large-scale atmospheric circulation, which result from the buoyancy of warm air and water, transfer hot air from the tropics toward the poles and cold air from the poles toward the tropics. The Earth’s rotation interacts with those flows, causing the observed eastward flow of air in the temperate zones. Convection dominates heat transfer by air, and the amount of available space for the airflow...
3.2K
01:14Mechanisms of Heat Transfer
266
Heat transfer between the human body and its environment occurs through four main mechanisms: conduction, convection, radiation, and evaporation.
Conduction, accounting for approximately 3% of body heat loss at rest, is the process of exchanging heat between molecules of two materials in direct contact. This can result in both heat loss and gain. For instance, when the body is submerged in water, which conducts heat 20 times more effectively than air, it can either lose or gain significant...
Conduction, accounting for approximately 3% of body heat loss at rest, is the process of exchanging heat between molecules of two materials in direct contact. This can result in both heat loss and gain. For instance, when the body is submerged in water, which conducts heat 20 times more effectively than air, it can either lose or gain significant...
266
01:14Mechanisms of Heat Transfer I
4.2K
Just as interesting as the effects of heat transfer on a system are the methods by which the heat transfer occur. Whenever there is a temperature difference, heat transfer occurs. It may occur rapidly, such as through a cooking pan, or slowly, such as through the walls of a picnic ice box. So many processes involve heat transfer that it is hard to imagine a situation where no heat transfer occurs. Yet, every heat transfer takes place by only three methods: conduction, convection, and radiation.
4.2K
01:19Mechanism of heat transfer
1.2K
Understanding heat transfer mechanisms is essential for understanding how our bodies maintain balance in different environmental conditions. When the environment is thermoneutral, the body is in a state of balance, neither using nor releasing energy to maintain its core temperature. However, when the environment is not thermoneutral, the body employs four heat transfer mechanisms to maintain homeostasis: conduction, convection, evaporation, and radiation. These mechanisms facilitate heat...
1.2K