一种新的空间异种类型的一般化添加物分布式滞后模型,用于PM2.5和心血管住院之间的时空关系
Ali Hadianfar1,2, Helmut Küchenhoff2, Shahab MohammadEbrahimi3
1Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Health, Mashhad University of Medical Sciences, Mashhad, Iran.
Scientific reports
|November 26, 2024
概括
来自PM2.5的空气污染显著增加了心血管住院,并观察到延迟效应. 这项研究确定了马什哈德的高风险地区,指导针对空气质量管理的针对性公共卫生干预措施.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 生物统计学 生物统计学
背景情况:
- 心血管住院 (CVH) 是一个重要的公共卫生问题,空气污染是已知的危险因素.
- 关于空气污染,特别是PM2.5对CVH的延迟和空间变化的影响的研究有限.
- 了解空气污染影响的空间差异对于有针对性的公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查PM2.5暴露和心血管住院病例 (CVH) 之间的空间异构性关系.
- 开发和应用一个空间异种类型的一般化添加物分布式滞后 (SHGADL) 模型来评估延迟效应.
- 确定马什哈德的特定地区,与PM2.5.5相关的CVH风险有所不同.
主要方法:
- 利用了马什哈德医学科学大学 (2017-2020) 的心血管住院数据和22个监测站的空气污染数据.
- 开发了一种通用添加式分布式滞后 (GADL) 模型,结合了更光滑的马尔科夫随机场 (MRF) 来解决空间异性.
- 由此产生的空间异种类型的通用化添加物分布式滞后 (SHGADL) 模型分析了PM2.5对CVH的滞后影响.
主要成果:
- 发现PM2.5暴露和CVH风险在滞后0和1之间存在显著的关联.
- 该研究显示,在不同地区的CVH上,PM2.5的相对风险 (RR) 中存在显著的空间异构.
- 考虑到空间变化后,在滞后0和1的CVH上PM2.5的RR分别为1.0102和1.0043,中部和东南部地区的风险更高.
结论:
- SHGADL模型证实了PM2.5暴露对心血管住院的显著滞后效应.
- 马什哈德的特定地区因PM2.5.5而存在较高的CVH相对风险.
- 研究结果支持针对性地进行空气污染管理和高风险地区紧急护理规划的当地干预.
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