犯罪组织模式和腐败的司法体系中的分支
G S Harari1, L H A Monteiro1,2
1Escola de Engenharia, Universidade Presbiteriana Mackenzie, São Paulo 01302-907, SP, Brazil.
Entropy (Basel, Switzerland)
|November 27, 2024
概括
这项研究模拟了有组织犯罪的动态,揭示了即使没有腐败的法官,犯罪仍然存在,如果前犯人总是复发. 犯罪控制策略必须解决重犯问题,以有效减少有组织犯罪人口.
科学领域:
- 数学建模的数学建模
- 人口动态 人口动态
- 犯罪学 犯罪学
背景情况:
- 犯罪组织可以透到司法系统.
- 了解有组织犯罪和司法腐败的动态对于有效的犯罪控制至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和分析犯罪组织和法官之间的人口动态的数学模型.
- 调查司法合作和前囚犯重犯率对有组织犯罪流行率的影响.
主要方法:
- 制定了一个包含四个非线性微分方程的数学模型.
- 分析技术被用来检查分叉 (向后和跨临界).
- 使用数值模拟来说明和验证分析结果.
主要成果:
- 该模型展示了复杂的人口动态,包括向后和跨临界分叉.
- 根除有组织犯罪是不可能的,如果所有的前犯人复发,无论司法腐败水平.
- 犯罪复发率和合作率显著影响了犯罪和司法人口之间的平衡.
结论:
- 反复犯罪是持续有组织犯罪的关键因素,即使在理论上没有腐败的系统中也是如此.
- 数学建模为犯罪控制策略提供了宝贵的见解.
- 政策干预应优先考虑减少前犯人重犯率,以有效打击有组织犯罪.
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