食品商品的收益率增长模式:洞察力和挑战
1World Bank, Washington, D.C., United States of America.
PloS one
|November 27, 2024
概括
全球农作物产量增长在60年来一直保持稳定,尽管区域差异,但总体没有放缓. 这表明全球粮食生产能力的持续增长.
科学领域:
- 农业科学 农业科学
- 全球粮食安全 全球粮食安全
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 全球粮食生产和生产率对于应对贫困,粮食不安全和气候变化至关重要.
- 了解这些模式有助于制定重要政策和投资决策.
- 现有的指标可能无法完全捕捉到各种作物产量和区域贡献.
研究的目的:
- 为广泛的作物开发基于热量的综合性生产和产量指数.
- 标准化用于比较不同作物和品种的农业生产率的措施.
- 巩固国家和地区对全球粮食生产的贡献.
主要方法:
- 144种作物的热量生产和产量指数的发展.
- 覆盖全球98%的农业用地和粮食产量.
- 应用Box-Cox转换来建模产量增长,确定线性模型是最优的.
主要成果:
- 在过去的六十年中,在总体水平上,全球收益率增长没有明显放缓.
- 平均年产量增加相当于每公近33公斤的小麦.
- 在特定商品或地区观察到的减速被其他地方的收益所抵消.
结论:
- 全球粮食供应呈现稳定的增长,从生产能力的角度来看,这是令人放心的.
- 在需求增长和气候压力下,人们仍然担心生产的可持续性和粮食负担能力.
- 战略和可持续的农业实践对于确保未来的粮食安全至关重要.
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