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群众是多么聪明:我们能否推断出人们是准确和有能力的,仅仅因为他们彼此同意?
Jan Pfänder1, Benoît De Courson1, Hugo Mercier1
1Institut Jean Nicod, Département d'études cognitives, ENS, EHESS, PSL University, CNRS, France.
Cognition
|November 27, 2024
概括
协议表明准确性和能力. 当个人做出独立估计时,收的答案与更好的准确性和更高的竞争力相关,即使没有先前的信念. 除非告密者表现出有系统的偏见,否则这一点是正确的.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 社会心理学 社会心理学
- 决策科学科学 决策科学
背景情况:
- 人们经常从个人之间的协议中推断出准确性和能力.
- 群众模型的传统智慧为这种推断提供了有限的解释.
- 独立估计的趋同是感知准确性的关键因素.
研究的目的:
- 调查协议 (融合) 与估计准确性/权威性之间的关系.
- 探索从共识中推断能力的心理基础.
- 检查系统偏见如何影响这些推断.
主要方法:
- 使用了分析论证和计算模拟.
- 进行了6项实验,其中有1197名英国参与者.
- 参与者对告密者的准确性和能力的推断在不同的条件下被测量.
主要成果:
- 模拟和分析论证证实,收的独立估计与更高的准确性和能力相关.
- 实验结果表明,参与者从同意的告密者中推断出更高的准确性和能力,即使没有事先的信息.
- 当告密者表现出系统偏见时,准确性和能力的推断减少了.
结论:
- 独立估计的收是推断准确性和能力的有效启发式.
- 这种启发式可能解释了公众对科学共识和专家能力的看法.
- 了解这种认知偏见对于评估信息和专业知识至关重要.
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