最老年人最新的癌症负担:使用2022年Globocan估计的基于人口的研究
Richa Shah1, Nicolò Matteo Luca Battisti2, Etienne Brain3
1Cancer Surveillance Branch, International Agency for Research on Cancer, 25 Avenue Tony Garnier CS 90627, Lyon 69366, France.
Cancer epidemiology
|November 27, 2024
概括
80岁以上的成年人癌症发病率和死亡率正在上升,2022年,有260万例和210万例死亡. 预测显示,到2050年,癌症病例和死亡人数将增加三倍,特别是在中国,印度和非洲.
科学领域:
- 老年瘤学 老年瘤学
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 全球80岁或以上的人口预计到2050年将增加三倍.
- 这种人口变化将大大增加整体癌症负担.
- 了解这一年龄段的癌症发病率和死亡率对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 估计2022年80岁以上个体的癌症发病率和死亡率.
- 预测2050年该人口的癌症发病率和死亡率.
- 分析这些趋势在全球范围内,根据地区和收入水平.
主要方法:
- 利用GLOBOCAN 2022对80岁以上的癌症病例和死亡的估计.
- 计算的年龄标准化发病率 (ASIR) 和死亡率 (ASMR).
- 预测到2050年的数字,假设发病率和死亡率保持不变.
主要成果:
- 在2022年,在80岁以上的人口中,估计有260万例新的癌症病例和210万例死亡.
- 肺癌,结肠直肠癌和前列腺癌是最常见的.
- 预计到2050年,新增740万例病例和600万例死亡,中国,印度和非洲增长超过200%.
结论:
- 最老年人的癌症负担日益增加,对医疗保健系统构成了重大挑战.
- 根据资源量身定制的适应是必要的,以管理这个日益严重的健康问题.
- 最老的老人必须被纳入癌症控制政策和研究工作.
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