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A Quantitative Fitness Analysis Workflow
Published on: August 13, 2012
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建设2022年卡塔尔世界杯比赛结果预测模型和绩效指标分析
Yingzhe Song1, Gang Sun1, Chao Wu2
1Institute of Artificial Intelligence in Sports, Capital University of Physical Education and Sports, Beijing, China.
Frontiers in sports and active living
|November 28, 2024
概括
足球比赛的结果可以使用性能指标来预测. 射击准确度和创造得分机会显著影响结果,正如卡塔尔世界杯预测模型所示.
科学领域:
- 运动分析 运动分析
- 足球表现分析 足球表现分析
- 运动中的机器学习
背景情况:
- 预测足球比赛的结果是复杂的.
- 绩效指标提供了潜在的预测能力.
- 数据驱动的洞察力可以增强团队战略.
研究的目的:
- 研究绩效指标对足球比赛结果的影响.
- 开发和评估对比赛结果的预测模型.
- 确定影响比赛成功的关键绩效指标.
主要方法:
- 利用了59场卡塔尔世界杯比赛的数据 (不包括加时赛).
- 采用基于大小的决策和机器学习算法 (决策树,物流回归,SVM,AdaBoost,随机森林,ANN).
- 整合了14个绩效指标来预测获胜/失败的结果.
主要成果:
- 人工神经网络 (ANN) 模型实现了最高的预测性能.
- 根据ANN模型的指标,75.42%的准确度,76.96%的AUC,72.73%的精度,65.31%的回忆,77.03%的特异性,68.82%的F1得分.
- 在SHAP分析中,确定了"在目标上"",射击机会"和"球进步"是最有影响力的特征.
结论:
- 射击精度和机会创造是足球比赛结果的关键决定因素.
- 成功开发了一种准确的对比赛结果的预测模型.
- 教练应将培训重点放在确定关键绩效指标上,例如射击准确度和机会产生.
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