高速公路铺大大增加了亚马逊地区登革热的传播
Alyson L Singleton1, Andres G Lescano2,3, Andrew J MacDonald4,5
1Emmett Interdisciplinary Program in Environment and Resources, Stanford University, Stanford, California, United States of America.
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|November 28, 2024
概括
新的高速公路建设显著增加了秘鲁的登革热病例,因为它促进了人类的流动性和疾病的传播. 基础设施开发必须在影响评估中考虑传染病风险.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 人类的流动性是传染病传播的关键因素.
- 基础设施驱动的移动性变化对健康的影响在评估中经常被忽视.
- 登革热是热带地区蚊子传播的重大疾病负担之一.
研究的目的:
- 调查基础设施发展,人类流动性和登革热传播之间的因果关系.
- 量化高速公路铺路对秘鲁马德雷·德·迪奥斯地区登革热发病率的影响.
主要方法:
- 使用了一种准实验性的差异差异方法.
- 分析了历史道路升级数据,作为人类流动性变化的代理.
- 2009年之前和之后的登革热发病率与距离铺设的跨洋公路附近和远处的登革热发病率进行比较.
主要成果:
- 高速公路铺路导致至少9,826个额外的登革热病例 (95% CI:8,562-10,684).
- 这些病例占所有区域登革热病例的45.2% (95% CI: 39.4%-49.2%) 在铺路后 (2009-2022年).
- 调查结果表明,基础设施对登革热通过改变人类运动传播的影响很大.
结论:
- 道路基础设施的发展,特别是高速公路铺路,大大增加了登革热的传播.
- 未来的热带地区基础设施影响评估应纳入登革热的潜在增加.
- 将移动性变化纳入疾病影响模型对于公共卫生规划至关重要.
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