在大学生中,SARS-CoV-2干预的最大预期好处:使用隐性类分析的模拟研究
medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences
|November 28, 2024
概括
对非药物公共卫生措施 (PHM) 的更高遵守与大学生中较低的SARS-CoV-2暴露风险相关. 即使在高度遵守的情况下,仍然存在显著的暴露风险,限制了增加合规性的影响.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 行为科学 行为科学
背景情况:
- 在疫苗之前,非药物公共卫生措施 (PHM) 对于减轻严重急性呼吸系统综合征冠状病毒2 (SARS-CoV-2) 传播至关重要.
- 遵守PHM的程度各不相同,影响其整体有效性,PHM采用的相互联系使单个措施的影响评估复杂化.
研究的目的:
- 在大学生群体中调查PHM的遵守与SARS-CoV-2暴露风险之间的关系.
- 识别不同的坚持群体并量化它们各自的阳性血清率.
主要方法:
- 在2020年秋季使用了纵向队列设计,将PHM坚持意向的行为调查与针对SARS-CoV-2暴露的IgG血清调查相结合.
- 隐性类分析 (LCA) 用于根据调查答复将学生分类为坚持群体.
主要成果:
- 三个学生群体出现了:最坚持 (38.04%),适度坚持 (46.21%) 和最不坚持 (15.75%).
- 血清阳性率与坚持相反相关:25.4% (大多数),32.2% (中度) 和37.7% (最小).
- 一个SIR模型模拟表明,通用高坚持可以将血清流行率降低76-93%.
结论:
- 遵守PHM显著影响大学环境中的SARS-CoV-2暴露风险.
- 尽管增加了坚持的潜在好处,但仍然存在大量的暴露风险,特别是在已经高度坚持的人群中.
- 如果基线遵守率已经很高,提高遵守率的有针对性的干预措施可能会产生有限的影响.
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