[巴西因外部原因死亡率的估计,2010-2019:垃圾原因再分配方法]
Adauto Martins Soares Filho1,2, Renato Azeredo Teixeira3, Ademar Barbosa Dantas Junior1
1Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde e Ambiente, Ministério da Saúde, Brasília, Brasil.
Cadernos de saude publica
|November 28, 2024
概括
这项研究通过将垃圾原因 (GC) 重新分配到有效的外部原因,改善了巴西的死亡数据质量. 巴西GBD方法通过提供更准确的暴力死亡数据来增强公共卫生预防.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 死亡率统计 死亡率统计
背景情况:
- 巴西死亡信息系统 (SIM) 的质量数据不足,不列出暴力,并要求重新分配垃圾原因 (GC).
- 准确的外部死亡原因数据对于公共卫生预防策略至关重要.
- 之前的研究已经使用诸如全球疾病负担研究 (GBD) 等方法估计了死亡率.
研究的目的:
- 用修改的GC再分配方法 (GBD-巴西) 估计巴西因外部原因的死亡率.
- 将GBD-巴西估计与SIM数据和GBD-IHME估计从2010年到2019年进行比较.
- 评估GC再分配对理解暴力死亡模式的影响.
主要方法:
- 应用GBD-巴西GC再分配算法,修改GBD-IHME步骤以有效原因或重新分类比例的标准.
- 使用标准化率,局部回归率和率比作为特定外部原因 (交通伤害,跌倒,自杀,杀人) 的校正因子.
- 分析了2010年至2019年巴西及其各州的数据,比较了GBD-巴西,SIM和GBD-IHME估计.
主要成果:
- 与原始SIM数据相比,GBD-巴西再分配增加了12.2%的有效外部原因.
- 巴西GBD和SIM利率的趋势曲线相似,但与北方和东北各州的GBD-IHME有所不同.
- 巴西的GBD估计改变了外部原因的模式,对北方/东北地区的跌倒和其他地方的杀人事件进行了更大的纠正.
结论:
- 巴西GBD方法为分析暴力死亡提供了简单的方法,确保可复制性和一致性.
- 这种方法提高了公共卫生政策的外部原因死亡率数据的准确性.
- 该方法考虑了局部数据组成,提高了估计死亡率模式的可靠性.
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