相对年龄效应在观察精英青年学院足球队的职业表现时反转
Henrik Biermann1, Daniel Memmert1, Christian Romeike2
1German Sport University Cologne Cologne,Germany.
Journal of sports sciences
|November 28, 2024
概括
相对年龄效应 (RAE) 显示,青少年学院的迟出生的球员较少. 然而,这些球员在职业生涯中获得了更多的专业分钟,这表明出色的天赋和职业成功.
科学领域:
- 运动科学 运动科学 运动科学
- 发展心理学 发展心理学
- 人才识别 人才识别
背景情况:
- 相对年龄效应 (RAE) 是一个已有充分证据的现象,即日历年初出生的运动员在青少年运动中具有表现优势.
- 这种偏见往往归因于年幼儿童的身体和认知成熟度差异.
- 之前的研究主要关注RAE在青少年体育中的存在,对长期职业成果的关注较少.
研究的目的:
- 调查相对年龄效应 (RAE) 对精英青年足球运动员长期职业生涯的影响.
- 为了确定年后出生的球员是否克服了最初的选择偏见,表现出卓越的职业生涯表现.
主要方法:
- 对从U9到U19的顶级青年足球学院球员队伍的分析.
- 追踪球员的职业道路,特别是职业生涯分钟 (PCM),使用来自 transfermarkt.de.的数据.
- 基于最低团队市场价值门 (100,000欧元) 的专业比赛的定义.
主要成果:
- 在青少年学院确认RAE,年底出生的球员比例较低.
- 一个重要的发现是,年底出生的球员平均获得了更多的职业生涯分钟 (PCM).
- 这表明,在RAE选择过程中成功导航的迟出生的球员是非常有才华的.
结论:
- 相对年龄效应 (RAE) 作为青年学院的重要选择偏差.
- 克服RAE的迟出生的球员表现出了特殊的能力和持续职业生涯的潜力.
- 这表明,人才识别系统应该考虑超越早期出生优势的长期潜力.
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