自然选择可以决定珊瑚在预期的气候变化下是否存在
Liam Lachs1,2, Yves-Marie Bozec3, John C Bythell1
1School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Newcastle upon Tyne, UK.
概括
海洋的热浪威胁着珊瑚礁. 虽然珊瑚可能有所适应,但如果不迅速减少排放以限制全球变暖,
科学领域:
- 海洋生物学
- 气候变化科学
- 进化生物学
背景情况:
- 由于气候变化,海洋热浪的频率和强度正在增加.
- 这些事件造成的珊瑚群死亡和强大的选择性压力.
- 珊瑚的适应能力跟上变暖的步伐仍然不确定.
研究的目的:
- 研究Acropora珊瑚在气候变化下的适应潜力.
- 模拟面临海洋热浪的珊瑚群体的生态进化动态.
- 预测未来的珊瑚群和珊瑚礁的运作情况.
主要方法:
- 开发了Acropora珊瑚的生态进化变种模型.
- 在各种全球变暖场景下模拟人口动态.
- 评估自然选择对珊瑚适应热压力的作用.
主要成果:
- 它们具有适应能力.
- 预计未来几十年热浪会导致人口大幅下降.
- 在~3°C的变暖情景下,种群可能会持续存在,但在枯竭的状态下,存在高灭绝风险和潜在的生态系统功能损失.
结论:
- 在预计的变暖下, 珊瑚礁的适应性本身是不够的.
- 通过快速减少温室气体排放, 将全球变暖限制在2°C是珊瑚在2050年以后生存的关键.
- 需要采取紧急的气候行动, 以防止对热敏珊瑚群体的严重损失, 并保护珊瑚礁生态系统.
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