全球土地使用变化及其对温室气体排放的影响
Lidong Li1,2, Tala Awada1, Yao Zhang2
1University of Nebraska-Lincoln, Lincoln, Nebraska, USA.
Global change biology
|November 30, 2024
概括
人类活动正在全球范围内改变土地利用,增加温室气体 (GHG) 排放. 如果没有干预,到2050年排放量可能达到76 GtCO2eq,但将土地利用变化减半可以将其限制在60 GtCO2eq.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 地理空间分析是什么
背景情况:
- 人类活动显著改变了地球的陆地表面,影响了陆地生态系统.
- 土地利用变化,包括城市化和农业扩张,与温室气体 (GHG) 排放和全球气候变化密切相关.
研究的目的:
- 分析土地使用模式对1992年至2020年全球温室气体排放的历史影响.
- 通过使用深度学习模型,在不同的土地使用场景下预测未来的全球温室气体排放.
主要方法:
- 综合了29年的全球历史土地使用和温室气体排放数据.
- 采用结构方程建模来确定土地利用与温室气体排放之间的关系.
- 利用深度学习模型进行未来温室气体排放的预测估计.
主要成果:
- 全球人工面积和耕地面积显著扩大 (133%和6%),而牧场和森林面积从1992年到2020年下降了 (4.0%和3.8%).
- 土地利用与温室气体排放有显著的相关性 (p < 0.05),人工表面是最大的贡献者.
- 在1992年至2020年期间,全球温室气体排放量从31GtCO2eq增加到46GtCO2eq.
结论:
- 按照目前的速度继续土地利用变化,预计到2050年全球温室气体排放量将达到76±8 GtCO2eq.
- 将土地利用变化速度减半可能会在2050年将温室气体排放量限制在60±3 GtCO2eq.
- 了解土地使用影响对于减缓气候变化和可持续未来规划至关重要.
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