要小心熊吗? 没有. 康涅狄格州人类与熊冲突的长期空间时间模式
Zachary Berkowitz1,2, Larissa Montas Bravo3, Shouraseni Sen Roy4
1Abess Center for Ecosystem Science and Policy, University of Miami, Coral Gables, FL, USA.
Environmental management
|November 30, 2024
概括
自2002年以来,康涅狄格州的人与熊冲突 (HBC) 显著增加. 关键预测因素包括森林碎片化,住房密度,水的接近和降雪,有助于未来的缓解策略.
科学领域:
- 野生动物生态学和保护
- 时间空间分析.
- 人类与野生动物冲突研究研究
背景情况:
- 人与熊冲突 (HBC) 在全球范围内越来越令人担忧.
- 了解时空模式和预测因素对于有效管理至关重要.
- 公民报告的数据为冲突动态提供了宝贵的见解.
研究的目的:
- 分析2002-2022年康涅狄格州公民报告的HBC的时空模式.
- 通过 Forest-Based and Boosted Classification (FBBC) 技术确定影响HBC发生的关键环境和人为因素.
- 为野生动物管理者提供数据驱动的见解,以制定有针对性的减缓策略.
主要方法:
- 公民报告的HBC数据 (2002-2022) 的时空空间分析.
- 森林基础和增强分类 (FBBC) 技术的应用.
- 地理统计分析包括分散度和热点分析.
- 对HBC发生的预测变量的验证.
主要成果:
- 观察到HBC事件的显著增加,从2002年的217起到2022年的4455起.
- HBC集中在康涅狄格州西北部,发现了南向趋势.
- 森林碎片化,中等住房密度,接近水和降雪是显著的预测因素 (约. 从2010年到2022年,HBC的重要程度为每一个20%).
- 土地覆盖面不是一个重要的预测因素.
结论:
- 基于环境变化,FBBC是一种可行的技术,用于预测未来的HBC.
- 调查结果为优先考虑缓解冲突的努力和开发基于证据的管理干预提供了关键的见解.
- 了解时空动态和关键驱动因素对于管理人与野生动物界面至关重要.
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