气候变化对中国的沿海蓝碳恢复构成挑战
Xiaoxiao Chen1, Miaochan Li2, Zengkai Zhang3
1College of the Environment and Ecology, Xiamen University, 361102, Xiamen, Fujian, China.
Journal of environmental management
|December 1, 2024
概括
中国的沿海蓝碳生态系统能够大量地封存碳,但却面临着气候变化的影响. 预测显示,到2050年,适合地区的封存潜力减少,并向北移动.
科学领域:
- 海洋生态海洋生态学
- 气候变化缓解减缓 气候变化缓解减缓
- 自然气候解决方案自然气候解决方案
背景情况:
- 沿海蓝碳生态系统 (红树林,盐沼,海草) 对减缓气候变化和生态系统服务至关重要.
- 这些生态系统容易受到气候变化的影响,影响它们的碳捕集能力.
研究的目的:
- 评估中国沿海蓝碳生态系统的合适区域和碳沉积潜力.
- 根据目前和2050年条件的三个气候场景来预测这些潜力.
主要方法:
- 利用MaxEnt模型进行适应性评估和碳汇潜力评估.
- 在多种气候场景下分析了2050年的现状和预测条件.
主要成果:
- 据估计,中国沿海蓝碳生态系统的年度碳捕集潜力为8.65×105/年.
- 具体潜力:红树林 (1.457 × 105 /年),潮盐沼 (6.714 × 105 /年),海草 (4.769 × 104 /年).
- 到2050年,由于气候变化,捕获潜力预计将减少8-27% (0.733-2.351 × 105t/a),在适合的地区,特别是红树林,将向北转移.
结论:
- 气候变化对中国沿海蓝碳生态系统的碳捕集能力构成重大威胁.
- 未来的保护和恢复战略必须整合气候变化的影响,并促进生态系统的适应,包括朝北的范围转移.
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