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长期和短期暴露于非最佳温度升高对死亡率的独立影响
Sofia Zafeiratou1, Massimo Stafoggia2, Antonio Gasparrini3
1Department of Hygiene, Epidemiology and Medical Statistics, Medical School, University of Athens, Athens, Greece.
Environmental pollution (Barking, Essex : 1987)
|December 1, 2024
概括
长期暴露于高温对死亡率产生影响,其影响因国家和温度指标而异. 需要进一步的研究来了解这些复杂的气候变化相关的健康影响.
科学领域:
- 环境流行病学环境流行病学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 气候变化研究研究 气候变化研究
背景情况:
- 已知短期热量对死亡率的影响.
- 由于气候变化,长期的温度影响正在引起人们的注意.
- 了解这些影响对于公共卫生战略至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查长期温暖时期温度暴露对所有原因死亡率的影响.
- 分析来自四个欧洲地区的数据:英国,挪威,意大利和希腊.
- 评估不同的温度指标 (平均值,SD,CV) 和它们与死亡率的关联.
主要方法:
- 利用欧洲NUTS-2地区的每日所有原因死亡人数 (1996-2018年).
- 采用了NUTS-2区域特定的随机拦截的混合准Poisson模型.
- 根据短期温度,季节性,长期趋势和人口特征进行调整.
主要成果:
- 观察到持续的短期温度对死亡率的影响,在南部地区更为强烈.
- 长期平均温度与死亡率的相关性因国家而异.
- 具体的温度指标显示了各种各样的关联:死亡率增加与更高的平均温度,更低的SD和增加的CV在希腊;更高的SD和降低的CV在意大利;降低的temp和CV在挪威. 英国的结果在统计学上并不显著.
结论:
- 长期暴露于高温似乎会增加撞击死亡率,但该方向在地理位置和每个指标上有所不同.
- 研究结果表明,气候变化,温度变化和死亡率之间存在复杂的关系.
- 建议对非生态设计和不同地理区域进行进一步的研究,以捕捉个人和区域特定的因素.
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