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探索非洲各地 (2015-2021) 严重粮食不安全的空间和空间时间模式
Mesfin M Ayalew1, Zelalem G Dessie2,3, Aweke A Mitiku2,4
1Department of Statistics, Bahir Dar University, P.O.Box 79, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. m2mulu@gmail.com.
Scientific reports
|December 1, 2024
概括
严重的粮食不安全是一个日益严重的全球问题,区域差异很大. 这项研究绘制了2015-2021年非洲高风险地区和时间集群的地图,确定了针对性干预的关键热点.
科学领域:
- 全球健康 全球健康
- 营养流行病学 营养流行病学
- 空间分析 空间分析
背景情况:
- 粮食不安全是一个关键的全球性挑战,具有深刻的公共卫生和营养影响.
- 严重粮食不安全的流行和模式的区域差异需要进行本地化调查.
研究的目的:
- 分析严重的粮食不安全在非洲大陆的空间和空间时间分布.
- 确定2015年至2021年严重粮食不安全的高风险地区 (热点) 和时间集群.
主要方法:
- 利用粮食及农业组织 (FAO) 的每年严重粮食不安全流行数据 (2015-2021年).
- 使用的空间统计:全球莫兰的I,安塞林的本地莫兰I和Getis-Ord Gi*统计.
- 应用了Kulldorff的时空扫描统计与Poisson模型来检测时间和时空星团.
主要成果:
- 在2015年至2021年期间,非洲各地观察到严重粮食不安全的显著空间聚类.
- 确定的热点包括刚果民主共和国,中非共和国,乌干达,赞比亚,安哥拉和塞拉利昂.
- 探测到六个重要的时空星团,其中最突出的是索马里 (2015-2017年) 和非洲中部 (2015-2017年) 的一个大型二级星团.
结论:
- 严重的粮食不安全在非洲地区表现出显著的空间和时间异质性.
- 干预策略必须考虑到这些空间差异,以有效预防和控制粮食不安全.
- 确定的热点和集群为有针对性的公共卫生和营养干预提供了关键数据.
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