风险,时间和心理距离:构造层次理论是否捕捉到延迟对风险偏好的影响?
Emmanouil Konstantinidis1, Junyi Dai2, Ben R Newell3
1Department of Psychology, University of Warwick.
Journal of experimental psychology. General
|December 2, 2024
概括
人们的风险偏好可能会在当前和未来的选择之间发生变化. 构造级理论 (CLT) 预测了人们如何衡量概率与回报的变化,但实验结果不一致.
科学领域:
- 认知心理学 认知心理学
- 决策科学 决策科学 决策科学
- 行为经济学是一种行为经济学.
背景情况:
- 构造层次理论 (CLT) 认为心理距离会影响心理表现.
- 时间距离影响个人如何感知和权衡风险,改变当前和未来选择之间的偏好.
研究的目的:
- 调查人们在不同时间点 (现在与未来) 提供风险彩票时,是否会改变他们对风险彩票的偏好.
- 测试来自构造水平理论的预测,以测试风险偏好的时间变化.
- 开发和验证一个正式的模型,将CLT关于风险的时间折扣的预测纳入其中.
主要方法:
- 为了检查不同时间的风险偏好,进行了五项实验.
- 各种因素,如结果的大小,概率,彩票呈现和激励等.
- 行为数据与正式的计算模型一起收集和分析.
主要成果:
- 该研究发现,基于时间距离的风险偏好预测的转变是不稳定的.
- 观察到的效应并不总是与从构造水平理论衍生的正式模型一致.
- 诸如结果和概率大小,演示格式和激励等因素调节了观察到的效应.
结论:
- 根据CLT的建议,时间距离对风险偏好的预测影响并不强大.
- 虽然存在一些关于风险偏好的时间转移的证据,但它是不一致的,并且不能完全由当前基于CLT的模型解释.
- 需要进一步的研究才能充分理解时间,风险感知和决策之间的复杂相互作用.
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