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自杀和与自杀相关的行为动态模拟模型:系统审查
Genevieve Gariepy1, Rifat Zahan2, Nathaniel D Osgood2,3
1Centre for Surveillance and Applied Research, Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
JMIR public health and surveillance
|December 2, 2024
概括
动态模拟模型为理解和预防自杀提供了强大的方法. 本次审查强调了它们在分析复杂干预措施和为预防自杀的公共卫生战略提供信息方面日益增长的实用性.
科学领域:
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 计算流行病学计算流行病学
- 卫生系统建模 卫生系统建模
背景情况:
- 自杀是全球公共卫生危机,每年夺走超过70万人的生命,不成比例地影响年轻人.
- 传统的研究方法很难捕捉到导致自杀的因素的复杂相互作用.
- 动态模拟建模越来越多地被认为是其在告知自杀预防策略方面的潜力.
研究的目的:
- 系统地审查现有的人口自杀和相关行为的动态模型.
- 总结这些模型的方法,应用和结果.
- 评估自杀预防中的动态建模现状和未来潜力.
主要方法:
- 在八个数据库 (MEDLINE,Embase,PsycINFO,Scopus,Compendex,ACM数字图书馆,IEEE Xplore,medRxiv) 进行了系统的搜索,从创建到2023年7月.
- 包括使用动态建模方法 (系统动态,基于代理的建模) 进行人口水平自杀研究的研究.
- 排除了微生物学,生物信息学,药理学,非动态方法和非初级报告的研究;使用STRESS指南评估报告质量.
主要成果:
- 确定了22项符合纳入标准的研究:15项是系统动态研究,6项是基于代理的研究,1项是微模拟模型的研究.
- 模型主要集中在澳大利亚和美国,检查从临床服务到社会决定因素的干预措施.
- 证明了动态模型在揭示协同干预效应和时间动态方面的实用性.
结论:
- 自杀的动态建模是一个新兴和快速扩展的领域,可以适应各种研究问题和背景.
- 虽然报告质量一般是充足的,但在一些研究中,透明度和可重复性需要改进.
- 动态建模具有很大的潜力,作为一种决策支持工具,用于理解和减轻自杀和相关行为.
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