通过使用新型多变量模糊时间序列模型,对马来西亚的水价格和生产进行了改进的预测
Muhammad Bilal1,2,3, Masad A Alrasheedi4, Muhammad Aamir1
1Department of Statistics, Abdul Wali Khan University Mardan, Mardan, 23200, Pakistan.
Scientific reports
|December 2, 2024
概括
本研究引入了先进的模糊时间序列模型,用于预测马来西亚大米价格和产量. 与形模糊数字 (TrFNs) 配合的模糊向量自回归模型与传统方法相比,提供更高的准确性,帮助利益相关者做出决策.
科学领域:
- 农业经济学 农业经济学
- 时间序列分析时间序列分析
- 模糊的逻辑 模糊的逻辑
背景情况:
- 自20世纪60年代以来,大米是全球重要的粮食来源,也是马来西亚的主要作物.
- 准确预测大米价格和产量对于利益相关者和经济稳定至关重要.
- 之前的研究使用了各种方法来分析大米市场.
研究的目的:
- 评估新的多变量模糊时间序列 (MFTS) 模型,特别是模糊向量自回归 (FVAR) 模型.
- 为了比较FVAR模型对马来西亚大米数据的传统矢量自回归 (VAR) 模型的预测准确度.
- 通过使用模糊逻辑方法来提高大米预测的精度.
主要方法:
- 使用三角模糊数 (TFN) 和梯形模糊数 (TrFN) 的模糊向量自回归 (FVAR) 模型的应用.
- 使用了马来西亚农业研究与开发研究所 (MERDI) 的数据集.
- 基于最小化平均绝对百分比误差 (MAPE) 和最大化相对效率的模型选择.
主要成果:
- 特别是使用形模糊数字 (TrFNs) 的FVAR模型在预测大米价格和产量方面显示出更高的准确性.
- 拟议的模糊模型在预测能力方面超过了传统的VAR模型.
- 选择的模型表现出令人称赞的准确性和可靠的未来预测.
结论:
- 先进的模糊模型,特别是带有TrFNs的FVAR,为大米市场提供了更高的预测准确性.
- 改进的预测帮助马来西亚农民和利益相关者做出明智的生产和定价决策.
- 这可以促进商业增长,促进大米出口,并为马来西亚的经济繁荣做出贡献.
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