重新审视J形:美国的人类发展和生育能力
Henrik-Alexander Schubert1,2,3, Christian Dudel1,4,3, Marina Kolobova1
1Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany.
Demography
|December 3, 2024
概括
经济发展和生育率显示出一个反向的J形关系,特别是在美国. 这种模式可能在2008年后发生了转变,性别平等和经济不确定性成为关键调解者.
科学领域:
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
- 社会学 社会学 社会学
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
背景情况:
- 生育率与经济和社会发展密切相关.
- 传统的反向J形假设表明,在较低的发育水平上存在负相关性,在较高的发育水平上逆转为积极.
- 最近的研究提出了关于反向J形的混合证据,促使进一步调查.
研究的目的:
- 通过美国沿线次国家数据,研究经济发展与生育率之间的关系.
- 解决对生育逆转假设的批评,并测试其有效性.
- 探索诸如性别平等和经济不确定性等调解因素.
主要方法:
- 从1969年到2018年,对美国各州发展和生育率的地方数据进行了纵向分析.
- 统计建模来评估反向的J形模式.
- 调解分析以确定性别平等和经济不确定性的作用.
主要成果:
- 该研究通常支持大多数模型规格中发育和生育之间的反向J形关系.
- 有证据表明,自2007-2008年金融危机以来,这种模式可能已经减弱或消失.
- 性别平等和经济不确定性被确定为发展与生育关系的重要调解因素.
结论:
- 在大多数条件下,经济发展与生育率之间的反向J形模式在大多数条件下保持,但近来其持久性是可疑的.
- 这些发现突出了社会经济因素的复杂相互作用,特别是性别平等和经济稳定,在塑造生育趋势方面.
- 需要进一步的研究,以了解高收入国家在不断变化的经济格局中生育率的演变动态.
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