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气候变化下的降雨引起的山体滑坡风险的时空建模和预测框架

Baoyu Du¹, Yi Wang², Zhice Fang³

¹School of Geophysics and Geomatics, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China.

Journal of environmental management

|December 3, 2024

概括

全球变暖加剧了极端降雨,增加了山体滑坡的风险. 这项研究模拟了未来80年的滑坡易感性和人口暴露,并纳入气候变化和动态人口,以更好地评估风险.

科学领域:

地球和环境科学地球和环境科学
气候科学气候科学
地质科学地质科学

背景情况:

全球变暖预计将加剧极端降雨事件,增加山体滑坡风险.
现有的山体滑坡易感性研究主要使用静态模型,忽视了关键的时空空间动态和气候变化影响.
由于气候变化和动态的社会经济因素,关于山体滑坡风险的未来演变存在重大知识差距.

研究的目的:

开发和介绍一种新的建模方法来模拟未来80年滑坡易感性和人口暴露的时空动态.
利用CMIP6降水数据将气候变化的直接影响纳入滑坡易感性建模中.
创建一个包含静态和动态人口数据的动态风险预测模型,以进行全面的未来影响评估.

主要方法:

为了建模,利用了江西省十年来降雨引起的山体滑坡数据.
采用了具有空间关系和空间时间交叉验证的通用增值模型 (GAM) (AUC:0.885,错误率:15.32%).
综合合模型相互比较项目第6期 (CMIP6) 降水数据,并开发了一个动态的人口风险模型.

主要成果:

这项研究成功地模拟了80年来山体滑坡易感性和人口暴露的动态.
建模方法证明了对山体滑坡易感性的高预测准确度.
动态风险预测模型为未来的山体滑坡影响提供了更好的洞察力.

结论:

开发的研究框架为了解气候变化对山体滑坡危险的影响提供了科学基础.
这些发现对城市规划和风险减轻策略有价值.
该研究为制定更有效的措施提供了信息,以减少未来山体滑坡风险造成的潜在损失.

关键词:

气候变化气候变化气候变化动态的滑坡风险动态的滑坡风险未来的场景未来的场景时间空间建模.

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