对美国50个州的COVID-19发病率和疫苗接种影响进行预测分析
Chinmayee Rayguru1, Atina Husnayain2, Hua-Sheng Chiu3
1Graduate Institute of Biomedical Informatics, College of Medical Science and Technology, Taipei Medical University, Taipei, Taiwan.
Computers in biology and medicine
|December 3, 2024
概括
COVID-19疫苗接种显著减少了病例和死亡人数. 一个长短期记忆 (LSTM) 机器学习模型有效预测了疫苗接种的影响,证明了其对公共卫生政策的价值.
科学领域:
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 机器学习 机器学习
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
背景情况:
- COVID-19仍然是一个重大的全球健康问题.
- 评估疫苗的有效性对于公共卫生战略至关重要.
- 机器学习为流行病学分析提供先进的工具.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证用于评估COVID-19疫苗接种有效性的机器学习模型.
- 根据疫苗接种情况预测COVID-19病例和死亡人数.
- 为了评估不同性别的疫苗接种影响.
主要方法:
- 使用的疾病控制和预防中心 (CDC) 数据 (2021-2023).
- 开发了一个深度学习的长期短期记忆 (LSTM) 模型用于预测.
- 进行内部和外部验证,与ARIMA模型进行比较.
主要成果:
- 接种疫苗 (一剂和两剂) 显著降低了COVID-19病例和死亡率.
- 在关键州,LSTM模型在预测病例和死亡方面表现优于ARIMA.
- 外部验证证实了LSTM模型在预测疫苗接种影响方面的有效性,不论性别.
结论:
- 在减少病例和死亡方面,COVID-19疫苗接种非常有效.
- 开发的LSTM模型准确地预测了疫苗的有效性.
- 研究结果可以为未来的公共卫生政策提供有关疫苗接种策略的信息.
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