土地利用变化,无净损失政策以及对二氧化碳吸收的影响
David N Wear1, Matthew Wibbenmeyer2
1Resources for the Future, 1616 P Street NW, Washington, DC, 20036, USA. wear@rff.org.
Carbon balance and management
|December 4, 2024
概括
消除二氧化碳 (CDR) 对气候目标至关重要. 土地使用变化对CDR产生重大影响,避免砍伐森林比植树林带来更大的好处. 准确的建模对于有效的气候政策至关重要.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 林业林业 林业 林业 林业
背景情况:
- 消除二氧化碳 (CDR) 对于将全球变暖限制在1.5°C至关重要,主要是通过森林碳捕获.
- 美国CDR率下降与土地使用变化有关,促使政策重点放在植树,避免森林砍伐和无净损失战略上.
- 准确估计政策影响需要了解土地利用和森林状况的相互作用,以便未来的CDR预测.
研究的目的:
- 评估不同土地使用-森林条件交互规格如何影响美国CDR预测.
- 为了比较净变化与组件变化模型在估计土地使用变化的CDR影响时的准确性.
- 量化美国各个生态省的森林砍伐造成的CDR损失和植林带来的收益.
主要方法:
- 利用模拟美国环保署土地部门净排放库存的模型.
- 在使用净变化和组件变化模型的近期土地使用变化率的场景下,比较了CDR预测.
- 估计每公的CDR损失和获利,分别来自森林砍伐和植树.
主要成果:
- 如果没有土地使用变化,美国的CDR预计将从2017年到2062年减少28%,原因是森林老化和干扰.
- 与组件变化模型相比,共同的净变化模型低估了大约56%的土地使用驱动的CDR损失.
- 在美国所有生态省份,植树的碳封存收益落后于砍伐森林的损失.
结论:
- 净变化模型大大低估了土地利用对CDR的影响,应该被组件变化模型所取代.
- 避免森林砍伐的CDR效益高达植林的两倍,尽管需要进行成本效益分析才能确定政策偏好.
- 没有净损失的政策可能会减少CDR损失,但会在45年内导致CDR总体下降;植林的好处会在更长的时间内增加,与政策不一致的时间表.
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