孩子们是否符合描述的概率? 采样假设适用于重复的风险选择
Anna I Thoma1, Christin Schulze2
1Center for Adaptive Rationality, Max Planck Institute for Human Development, 14195 Berlin, Germany.
Journal of experimental child psychology
|December 4, 2024
概括
幼儿从描述中学习的概率与风险选择中的概率不匹配. 相反,他们多样化了选择,年长的孩子经常切换选择,表明探索.
科学领域:
- 发展心理学 发展心理学
- 认知科学 认知科学
- 决策研究 决策研究
背景情况:
- 儿童可以从描述性信息中学习结果概率,例如图形频率分布.
- 以前的研究探讨了儿童因果学习的抽样和成年人反复冒险的选择.
- 了解孩子如何在从描述中学习概率时重复做出危险的选择是不太了解的.
研究的目的:
- 为了研究儿童早期重复冒险选择的发展,当结果概率从图形描述中学习时.
- 检查孩子的概率是否匹配,以及所感知的选择依赖是否影响他们的决策过程.
- 为了比较儿童和成年人的行为在一个儿童友好的风险选择任务.
主要方法:
- 对201名儿童 (年龄为3-7岁) 和100名成年人进行了风险选择任务.
- 参与者在做出重复选择之前,从图形表示中学习结果概率.
- 分析选择行为,重点关注概率匹配,选择依赖,多样化和切换模式.
主要成果:
- 与预期相反,无论是儿童还是成年人,都没有在重复的风险选择中表现出概率匹配.
- 对于任何一个群体来说,选择之间的感知依赖并没有显著地塑造底层选择过程.
- 孩子们主要多样化了他们的选择,年长的孩子表现出强烈的倾向在选择之间切换.
结论:
- 来自因果学习和风险选择文献的标准认知模型并不完全适用于这种学习环境.
- 童年似乎是探索决策的关键时期,其特点是选择多样化和切换.
- 在研究重复选择行为的发育变化时,学习概率的格式 (例如图形描述) 是至关重要的.
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