利用深度学习来研究气候变化对地下水动态和抽水变化的影响
Sumriti Ranjan Patra1, Hone-Jay Chu1, Mohammad Adil Aman1
1Department of Geomatics, National Cheng Kung University, Tainan City, Taiwan.
The Science of the total environment
|December 4, 2024
概括
气候变化影响地下水位和送能源的使用. 未来的预测显示,能源需求不断增长和水位下降,威胁到区域的水源安全.
科学领域:
- 水文学的水文学
- 气候科学 气候科学
- 人工智能的人工智能
背景情况:
- 气候变化可能导致地下水位大幅下降.
- 了解气候,地下水和能源消耗之间的相互作用对于水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 调查气候变化对台湾中部地下水位和抽电消耗的影响.
- 用气候模型预测和深度学习方法预测未来的趋势.
主要方法:
- 使用混合卷积神经网络-长期短期记忆 (CNN-LSTM) 深度学习模型.
- 作为输入数据,使用了2007-2021年的月度降水和平均温度数据.
- 根据SSP245和SSP585情景 (2022-2036) 中的CMIP6模型的未来气候预测被纳入.
主要成果:
- 地下水位的波动间接与气候诱导的抽水有关,在炎热干燥的时期,能源消耗较高.
- 在未来15年内,抽电量预计将增加2.5-5%.
- 由于预计降水减少和温度升高,地下水位可能下降超过1米.
结论:
- 气候变化对地下水资源产生重大影响,特别是在灌密集的地区.
- 精确的地下水管理需要整合气候和抽水数据.
- 积极主动的管理策略对于确保区域粮食和水安全至关重要.
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