碳封存参数的灵敏度分析:基于开放多孔介质储存模拟器的象征回归模型预测
Pavel Praks1, Atgeirr Rasmussen2, Kjetil Olsen Lye2
1IT4Innovations, VSB - Technical University of Ostrava, 708 00, Ostrava, Czech Republic.
Heliyon
|December 5, 2024
概括
使用开放多孔介质 (OPM) 流动的灵敏度分析显示,页岩透性是长期碳捕获的关键. 沙子的多孔性在早期阶段占主导地位,突出了对200年模拟的需求,以准确评估二氧化碳储存.
科学领域:
- 地质科学 地质科学
- 计算流体动力学的流体动力学.
- 环境工程 环境工程
背景情况:
- 储模拟对于地下流量问题至关重要,特别是在碳捕获方面.
- 开放多孔介质 (OPM) 流是一个开源工具,用于建模地下多孔水库中的流体流动.
- 了解参数的影响对于有效评估二氧化碳储存场所至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在碳捕集建模的输入参数上进行灵敏度分析.
- 确定影响二氧化碳迁移和捕获的关键参数.
- 评估长期模拟时间表的必要性,以进行准确的封存分析.
主要方法:
- 使用OPM流来模拟二氧化碳注入 (15年) 和注入后迁移 (200年).
- 采用准蒙特卡洛 (QMC) 方法来生成输入参数值.
- 应用全球灵敏度分析 (Sobol序列) 和符号回归建模.
主要成果:
- 页岩透性 ("沙层之间的页岩透性") 被确定为对"二次捕获的二氧化碳"最有影响力的参数.
- 在最初的120年的模拟中,沙子的多孔性比页岩的透性更重要.
- 所有的回归模型都证实了页岩透性的持续重要性.
结论:
- 灵敏度分析有效地识别了碳捕获的关键参数.
- 物理参数的相对重要性在模拟时间范围内发生变化.
- 精确评估碳封存需要至少200年的模拟期.
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