相关实验视频

Updated: Jun 5, 2025

Histological Analyses of Acute Alcoholic Liver Injury in Zebrafish

Histological Analyses of Acute Alcoholic Liver Injury in Zebrafish

Published on: May 25, 2017

使用先进的时间序列模型预测年轻人群中与酒精有关的肝病死亡率趋势:一篇1999-2030年分析

Hassam Ali¹, Vinay Jahagirdar², Hanna Blaney³

¹Department of Gastroenterology, Hepatology & Nutrition ECU Health Medical Center/Brody School of Medicine Greenville North Carolina USA.

JGH open : an open access journal of gastroenterology and hepatology

|December 5, 2024

概括

与酒精有关的肝病 (ALD) 死亡率在55岁以下的人群中正在上升. 预测显示,ALD死亡人数持续增加,突出显示公共卫生干预措施的迫切需要.

科学领域:

公共卫生公共卫生
流行病学流行病学
肝病学肝病学是一种肝病学.

背景情况:

与酒精有关的肝病 (ALD) 是一个日益严重的公共卫生问题,尤其影响年轻人群.
酒精相关疾病是酒精相关死亡的主要原因.
这项研究的重点是预测到2030年55岁以下人群的ALD死亡率趋势.

研究的目的:

预测与酒精有关的肝病死亡率趋势.
分析55岁以下人群的发展趋势.
预测到2030年的死亡率.

主要方法:

使用CDC WONDER数据库 (1999-2022) 来查看ALD死亡 (ICD-10代码为K70.0-K70.9).
分析了原始死亡率 (CMR) 和使用APC/AAPC与经验定量值置信区间的时间趋势.
采用自回归集成移动平均 (ARIMA) 模型对2030年的预测进行验证,通过时间序列交叉验证进行验证.

主要成果:

在55岁以下的人群中,ALD死亡率在1999年至2022年间从每10万人中从3.9增加到9.7 (AAPC4.66%).
预计到2030年,预计每10万人口的比例将达到14.4.
25-34岁的年龄组显示出最高的增长 (AAPC 10.27%),预计将继续增长.

结论:

预测表明,在55岁以下的人群中,ALD死亡率持续增加.
迫切需要公共卫生战略来应对这种不断升级的趋势.
这些发现强调了急需采取干预措施,以减少年轻人群中与酒精有关的肝病死亡人数.

关键词:

在阿里马,阿里马就是阿里马.疾病预防控制中心的奇迹.与酒精有关的疾病.流行病学流行病学预测预测预测预测肝脏疾病肝脏疾病机器学习是机器学习.死亡率死亡率公共卫生公共卫生.年轻的成年人年轻的成年人

更多相关视频

A Three-Dimensional Spheroid Model to Investigate the Tumor-Stromal Interaction in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

A Three-Dimensional Spheroid Model to Investigate the Tumor-Stromal Interaction in Hepatocellular Carcinoma

Published on: September 30, 2021

Development of an Ethanol-induced Fibrotic Liver Model in Zebrafish to Study Progenitor Cell-mediated Hepatocyte Regeneration

Development of an Ethanol-induced Fibrotic Liver Model in Zebrafish to Study Progenitor Cell-mediated Hepatocyte Regeneration

Published on: May 13, 2016

相关概念视频

Actuarial Approach

Actuarial Approach

The actuarial approach, a statistical method originally developed for life insurance risk assessment, is widely used to calculate survival rates in clinical and population studies. This method accounts for participants lost to follow-up or those who die from causes unrelated to the study, ensuring a more accurate representation of survival probabilities.
Consider the example of a high-risk surgical procedure with significant early-stage mortality. A two-year clinical study is conducted,...

Kaplan-Meier Approach

Kaplan-Meier Approach

The Kaplan-Meier estimator is a non-parametric method used to estimate the survival function from time-to-event data. In medical research, it is frequently employed to measure the proportion of patients surviving for a certain period after treatment. This estimator is fundamental in analyzing time-to-event data, making it indispensable in clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and reliability engineering. By estimating survival probabilities, researchers can evaluate treatment effectiveness,...

Cancer Survival Analysis

Cancer Survival Analysis

Cancer survival analysis focuses on quantifying and interpreting the time from a key starting point, such as diagnosis or the initiation of treatment, to a specific endpoint, such as remission or death. This analysis provides critical insights into treatment effectiveness and factors that influence patient outcomes, helping to shape clinical decisions and guide prognostic evaluations. A cornerstone of oncology research, survival analysis tackles the challenges of skewed, non-normally...