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一个基于网络的动态诺米克图,用于估计住院艾滋病毒阳性患者的 talaromycosis 风险

Xu Li¹, Zhongsheng Jiang^1,2, Shenglin Mo^1,2

¹Liuzhou Key Laboratory of Infection Disease and Immunology, Liuzhou People's Hospital, Liuzhou, Guangxi, China.

Epidemiology and infection

|December 5, 2024

概括

这项研究开发了一种名谱,用于预测住院艾滋病毒阳性患者的 talaromycosis 风险. 该工具表现出了卓越的准确性和早期干预的临床实用性.

科学领域:

传染性疾病传染性疾病
公共卫生公共卫生
医疗信息学医疗信息学

背景情况:

塔拉罗米科斯是人类免疫缺陷病毒 (HIV) 阳性个体的重大机会性感染.
准确的风险评估对于及时干预和改善患者结果至关重要.
现有的预测艾滋病毒患者的塔拉罗米科斯风险工具是有限的.

研究的目的:

开发和验证在住院艾滋病毒阳性患者中预测 talaromycosis 风险的预测性 nomogram.
为了确定与此种人群中塔拉罗米科斯相关的独立风险因素.
创建一个用户友好的工具,用于临床应用.

主要方法:

这是一项回顾性队列研究,涉及中国四家医院 (2010-2019) 的1564名住院艾滋病毒阳性患者.
数据分为培训 (70%) 和验证 (30%) 集.
单变量和多变量逻辑回归分析以确定风险因素;使用ROC曲线和校准图表构建和验证名ogram.

主要成果:

通过多变量逻辑回归,通过多变量逻辑回归确定了十个单独的 talaromycosis 风险因素.
在培训 (AUC=0.883) 和验证 (AUC=0.889) 两组中,开发的名图表显示出出色的歧视.
诺米图表显示了良好的校准,并通过CIC和DCA证实了临床实用性.

结论:

开发的诺米克图是一种实用和定量工具,用于评估住院艾滋病毒阳性患者的 talaromycosis 风险.
这个工具可以帮助临床医生实施及时和适当的干预措施.
建议进行进一步的前性验证,以确认其广泛的临床实用性.

关键词:

艾滋病毒感染艾滋病毒感染逻辑回归的逻辑回归方法这个名字是名ogramogram.预测模型是一个预测模型.塔拉罗米科西斯是一种发病性疾病.

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