评估干旱事件使用多个干旱指数在气候变化下在上印度河流域的干旱事件
Taha Shamim1, M Sultan Bhat2, Akhtar Alam2
1Department of Geography and Disaster Management, School of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Kashmir, Srinagar, 190006, India. tahashamim11@gmail.com.
Environmental monitoring and assessment
|December 5, 2024
概括
由于气候变化,印度河上游盆地干旱正在增加. 降水量正在下降,而温度和连续干燥的日子正在上升,这表明气候变暖和干燥.
科学领域:
- 气候学 气候学 气候学
- 水文学的水文学
- 环境科学 环境科学
背景情况:
- 上印度河盆地 (UIB) 面临着日益增加的气候变化.
- 了解时空干旱变化对于水资源管理至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 分析从1980年到2020年在UIB的干旱特征.
- 评估气候变化对不同UIB地区干旱模式的影响.
主要方法:
- 利用来自16个站点的观测气候数据 (降水,温度,PET).
- 使用ClimPACT2,DrinC和CMhyd软件使用多个干旱指数 (SPI,SPEI,CDD,AI,eRDI,PD).
- 使用ArcGIS绘制极端干旱事件的地图.
主要成果:
- 观测到降水减少 (30毫米/十年) 和温度上升 (Tmax:0.132°C/十年,Tmin:0.23°C/十年).
- 干旱度增加 (AI减少0.15/十年),连续干旱日增加 (2天/十年).
- 干旱发生了12.6年,最常见的是轻度干旱 (15%).
结论:
- 该UIB展现了一个变暖和干燥的气候制度.
- 干旱事件在UIB变得越来越频繁和强烈.
- 区域分析显示,在查,克什米尔和拉达克有明显的干旱模式.
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