工业和出口复杂性是否推动了巴西的区域经济增长?
Ben-Hur Francisco Cardoso1, Eva Yamila da Silva Catela1, Guilherme Viegas1,2
1Departamento de Economia e Relações Internacionais, Universidade Federal de Santa Catarina, Florianópolis, SC, Brazil.
PloS one
|December 5, 2024
概括
工业复杂性,而不是出口复杂性,推动了巴西的区域经济增长. 专注于多样化的工业结构和区域溢出效应是新兴经济体包容性增长政策的关键.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 经济地理 经济地理
- 区域科学 地区科学
背景情况:
- 经济复杂性影响经济增长,但出口与工业复杂性对大型新兴经济体区域增长的影响差异仍未得到充分研究.
- 巴西的经济呈现两分歧,以资源为基础的出口与服务和国内贸易主导的劳动力市场形成对比.
- 了解哪种复杂度衡量方法最能预测增长对于有针对性的产业政策至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 为了比较出口复杂度和工业复杂度对巴西区域经济增长的预测能力.
- 分析整个巴西微区域的出口和工业复杂性的空间分布.
- 为新兴经济体制定有效的工业政策提供信息.
主要方法:
- 利用了巴西正式劳动力市场的综合数据集 (大约. 在2003年至2019年期间,1亿名工人,581个行业).
- 分析了558个小区域,绘制出口复杂性,工业复杂性和经济增长的模式.
- 使用回归分析来评估复杂度指标与区域增长前景之间的关系.
主要成果:
- 出口复杂性比工业复杂性更广泛,复杂的服务集中在少数城市地区.
- 区域工业复杂性在很大程度上预测了3年经济增长,而出口复杂性则没有.
- 邻近地区的经济复杂性与当地经济增长有积极的相关性,突出了溢出效应.
结论:
- 涵盖所有就业部门的工业复杂性,比出口复杂性更准确地反映了巴西的知识基础和增长潜力.
- 政策应优先加强各种区域工业结构的复杂化,并促进区域间发展溢出效应.
- 与以出口为基础的措施相比,工业复杂性为新兴经济体设计包容性工业政策提供了优越的框架.
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