气候变化导致的灭绝
Mark C Urban1,2,3
1Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of Connecticut, Storrs, CT, USA.
概括
气候变化将加速物种的灭绝,特别是如果全球气温上升超过1.5°C. 这使得三分之一的物种受到威胁,
科学领域:
- 生态学
- 气候科学
- 保护生物学
背景情况:
- 气候变化对全球生物多样性构成重大但不确定的风险.
- 预测物种对气候变化的脆弱性对于有效的保护至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 对气候变化导致的灭绝进行量化全球评估.
- 综合现有研究和预测进行全面分析.
主要方法:
- 对485项研究的分析.
- 包括超过500万种物种的预测.
主要成果:
- 预计灭绝速度将在1.5°C的变暖之后显著加快.
- 最高的排放情况可能会危及大约三分之一的地球物种.
- 两动物,山地/岛屿/淡水物种以及南美,澳大利亚和新西兰的物种最容易受到影响.
- 自1970年以来,气候变化对已知灭绝的贡献有所增加.
结论:
- 迫切的温室气体减排对于防止大规模灭绝至关重要.
- 在气候危机期间,有针对性的保护战略对于保护脆弱物种至关重要.
- 阻止和扭转人为气候变化对于长期保护生物多样性至关重要.
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