现在和未来的消防管理:今天的解决方案明天仍然适用吗?
Erica Marshall1, Bruce G Marcot2, Kate Parkins1
1FLARE wildfire research, The University of Melbourne, School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences, Melbourne, Victoria, Australia.
The Science of the total environment
|December 5, 2024
概括
气候变化加剧了野火制度,增加了风险. 结合规定的燃烧和灭火是最具成本效益的消防管理策略,以减轻影响并降低未来的野火成本.
科学领域:
- 生态科学 生态科学
- 环境管理环境管理
- 适应气候变化 适应气候变化
背景情况:
- 气候变化和消防管理是不断发展的消防制度的主要驱动因素.
- 预计全球的消防制度将加剧,增加对人员,财产和环境的风险.
- 了解消防管理的成本效益对于明智地分配资源至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 在当前和未来的气候条件下量化各种消防管理策略的成本效益.
- 评估管理和气候对各种资产火灾规模和风险的影响.
- 确定最佳的消防管理方法,以减轻野火的影响.
主要方法:
- 贝叶斯决策网络 (BDN) 的开发和测试.
- 整合了大约1200个火灾模式模拟,16个管理策略,六个地区和六个气候模型.
- 基于管理成本和随后的野火影响成本计算成本效益.
主要成果:
- 根据大多数地区的未来气候情景,野火管理成本预计将增加.
- 规定的燃烧和抑制的组合始终显示出高的成本效益.
- 与积极管理相比",什么都不做"的方法会显著增加风险和成本.
结论:
- 积极的火灾管理,特别是结合规定的燃烧和灭火,对于减轻不断升级的野火风险和成本至关重要.
- 有关资源分配的知情决策对于有效的消防管理至关重要.
- 采取行动是必要的,以防止高影响和减少与野火相关的总体支出,现在和未来.
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