改善中国空气质量的心血管健康和经济成果:一项建模研究
Siyuan Wang1, Yawen Jiang2, Zhiwei Xu3
1The George Institute for Global Health, UNSW, Sydney, New South Wales, Australia.
BMJ global health
|December 5, 2024
概括
在中国改善空气质量可以显著降低心血管疾病 (CVD) 的成本,并改善质量调整寿命年 (QALYs). 满足世界卫生组织 (WHO) 的PM2.5指导方针提供了比国家标准高出三倍的好处.
科学领域:
- 环境健康 环境健康
- 公共卫生政策 公共卫生政策
- 流行病学 流行病学
背景情况:
- 中国面临着严重的空气污染和心血管疾病 (CVD) 的负担不断增加.
- 估计空气质量对心血管疾病的经济和健康影响对于公共卫生至关重要.
- 经质量调整的寿命年 (QALYs) 提供了一种衡量健康收益的方法.
研究的目的:
- 在中国的各种PM2.5空气质量场景下,估计与心血管疾病相关的医疗保健成本和QALY.
- 为了比较满足中国国家PM2.5目标与世卫组织指南的好处.
主要方法:
- 使用2015年中国健康与退休纵向研究数据开发了一个健康预测模型.
- 2015年PM2.5水平的估计10年CVD成本和QALY,国家目标 (35μg/m3) 和世卫组织指南 (5μg/m3).
- 应用了世卫组织的风险曲线来预测缺血性中风和冠心病的10年全国发病率.
主要成果:
- 在2015年,估计的10年心血管疾病成本为9612亿美元,失去了444亿个QALY.
- 达到国家目标 (35μg/m3) 预计节省了92.9亿美元,获得了343万 QALY.
- 达到世卫组织指南 (5μg/m3) 预计节省30.10亿美元,获得11.29万 QALY.
结论:
- 世卫组织的PM2.5指南 (5μg/m3) 提供了比中国国家标准 (35μg/m3) 更大的健康和经济效益.
- 结果表明,中国需要更严格的国家PM2.5标准.
- 结果可以为其他低收入和中等收入国家的空气质量目标提供信息.
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