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气候变化是否阻碍了尼日利亚经济的经济进步? 从动态模型获得的洞察力
Sodiq Arogundade1, Adewale Samuel Hassan1, Biyase Mduduzi1
1College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park Kingsway Campus PO Box 524 Auckland Park, Johannesburg, South Africa.
Heliyon
|December 6, 2024
概括
气候变化对尼日利亚产生负面影响
科学领域:
- 环境经济学环境经济学
- 气候变化经济学 气候变化经济学
- 尼日利亚经济发展
背景情况:
- 尼日利亚面临着重大的经济挑战.
- 了解气候变化的长期经济影响对于可持续发展至关重要.
- 之前的研究还没有完全捕捉到尼日利亚气候变化和经济增长之间的动态关系.
研究的目的:
- 研究尼日利亚气候变化与经济增长之间的长期关系.
- 采用先进的计量经济学技术进行细微分析.
- 为政策制定提供经验证据.
主要方法:
- 自行回归分布式滞后 (ARDL) 模型
- 完全修改最小平方 (FMOLS)
- 量子自回归分布式滞后 (QARDL) 是指量子自回归分布式滞后.
- 时间变化的因果关系分析.
主要成果:
- 气候变化对尼日利亚的经济增长没有短期的影响,而是长期的负面影响.
- 气候变化的弹性随着经济增长量的增加而增加.
- 单向因果关系从气候变化到随着时间的推移的经济增长.
结论:
- 积极主动和适应性的政策框架对尼日利亚至关重要.
- 建议采用气候智能政策,以实现可持续的经济增长.
- 调查结果强调了与尼日利亚不受控制的气候变化相关的经济风险.
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