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On the macrofinancial determinants of life and non-life insurance premiums.
The Geneva papers on risk and insurance. Issues and practice·2021
使用动态模型平均化框架预测名义汇率.
Martin Časta1,2
1Prague University of Economics and Business, Prague, Czech Republic.
Heliyon
|December 6, 2024
概括
本研究介绍了用于汇率预测的动态模型平均值,证明了主要货币的可预测性. 该方法考虑了模型不确定性,为中长期甚至短期预测提供了洞察力.
科学领域:
- 经济学 经济学 经济学
- 计量经济学 计量经济学 计量经济学
- 金融预测 金融预测
背景情况:
- 汇率预测对国际金融至关重要.
- 现有的模型经常与参数和模型不确定性作斗争.
- 需要一个统一的框架来涵盖各种预测方法.
研究的目的:
- 为名义汇率预测提出一个动态模型平均 (DMA) 方法.
- 在汇率预测中分析参数和模型不确定性.
- 评估主要货币对的可预测性.
主要方法:
- 开发了一个动态模型平均 (DMA) 框架.
- 将DMA方法应用于九种主要的货币对 (AUD/USD,CAD/USD,CHF/USD,EUR/USD,GBP/USD,NOK/USD,NZD/USD,SEK/USD,JPY/USD). 在此过程中,我们将DMA方法应用于9种主要货币对 (AUD/USD,CAD/USD,CHF/USD,EUR/USD,GBP/USD,NOK/USD,NZD/USD,SEK/USD,JPY/USD).
- 利用大约二十年的历史数据进行经验分析.
主要成果:
- 经验证明了具有统计和经济意义的汇率可预测性.
- 发现主要货币对的中长期可预测性.
结论:
- 动态模型平均方法有效预测名义汇率.
- 这项研究证实,有相当大的汇率可预测性.
- 为观察到的可预测性提供了理论解释.


