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全球供应链网络的系统性风险:从静态拓结构到级联故障动态

Xin Ouyang^1,2,3, Litao Liu^1,2, Wu Chen⁴

¹Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China.

Environmental science & technology

|December 6, 2024

概括

全球供应链对随机干扰是坚固的,但对目标干扰是脆弱的. 确保这些关键材料的安全需要国际合作,以平衡电动汽车的效率和弹性.

科学领域:

材料科学材料科学材料科学
经济学经济学经济学
网络科学网络科学

背景情况:

对于电动汽车和气候目标至关重要,但其供应链面临着越来越多的风险.
现有的研究往往忽视了生命周期阶段和经济中的动态,级联风险和相互依赖.
供应链风险通过复杂的多层网络传播,在地理上和时间上.

研究的目的:

调查全球供应链中复杂的相互联系,相互依赖和系统性风险.
分析静态和动态网络属性,以了解供应链的漏洞.
确定关键国家和地缘政治事件 (如贸易脱) 对供应链的潜在影响.

主要方法:

与贸易相关的物流分析与复杂网络分析的整合.
应用静态和动态网络措施来评估供应链的稳定性和脆弱性.
建模假设场景,如美中贸易脱,以量化风险放大.

主要成果:

全球供应链表现出"强而脆弱"的特征,能够抵御随机冲击,但容易受到针对性的破坏.
包括葡萄牙,巴西,新加坡,加拿大,芬兰,挪威,南非,以色列,匈牙利和阿联在内的特定国家被确定为高度易受破坏的影响.
假设美中贸易脱可能会使整个网络的故障升级大约5%.

结论:

调查结果强调需要全球合作,以加强供应链的安全性和弹性.
与安全平衡供应链效率至关重要,以避免发生"零和游戏"情景.
解决系统性风险需要集体努力,以确保稳定的供应,以实现电动汽车的转型.

关键词:

级联故障的故障.复杂的网络复杂的网络.和是的组成部分.材料流分析材料流分析多层网络的多层网络.供应链供应链供应链供应链.

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