热量不成比例地杀死年轻人:墨西哥湿球温度的证据
Andrew J Wilson1,2,3, R Daniel Bressler3,4,5, Catherine Ivanovich5,6
1Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Palo Alto, CA, USA.
Science advances
|December 6, 2024
概括
气候变化将增加与高温有关的死亡人数,不成比例地影响35岁以下的年轻人. 未来的预测显示,这个年龄组的热死亡人数显著增加,而与寒冷有关的死亡人数减少.
科学领域:
- 环境科学环境科学
- 公共卫生 公共卫生
- 人口统计学 人口统计学
背景情况:
- 预计气候变化将增加与温度相关的死亡率,最初的担忧集中在老年人身上.
- 墨西哥提供了一个独特的案例研究,因为它有大量的死亡率数据和极端潮湿的炎热条件.
研究的目的:
- 调查墨西哥湿热和年龄特定死亡率之间的关系.
- 在不同的气候变化情景下预测未来与温度相关的死亡风险.
主要方法:
- 使用详细的湿球温度测量.
- 分析了特定年龄的死亡率数据.
- 开发了湿热和相关死亡率的高分辨率预测.
主要成果:
- 35岁以下的个人占最近与热有关的死亡人数的75%,以及87%的失去了生命年.
- 50岁及以上的人群占感冒相关死亡的96%和失去生命年数的80%.
- 在SSP 3-7.0情景下,预计35岁以下的死亡人数将增加32%,而其他年龄组的死亡人数将减少33%.
结论:
- 年轻人群对与热量相关的死亡率非常脆弱.
- 未来的气候变化情景表明,与温度相关的死亡率从老年人群转向年轻人群的显著转变.
- 迫切需要采取公共卫生干预措施,以应对年轻人群中与炎热相关的死亡风险的不断升级.
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