改进的基于时间和空间变化的临性人口模型:在废水流行病学中的构建和应用
Xinfeng Che1, Xiaoyu Zheng2, Wenjia Tao3
1School of Pharmacy, China Pharmaceutical University, Nanjing 210009, PR China; Office of China National Narcotics Control Commission-China Pharmaceutical University Joint Laboratory on Key Technologies of Narcotics Control, Beijing 100193, PR China; Longquanyi district branch of Chengdu Public Security Bureau, Chengdu 610100, PR China.
The Science of the total environment
|December 7, 2024
概括
通过准确反映人口动态,新的EC模型改善了基于废水的流行病学 (WBE) 的人口估计. 这提高了WBE研究的可靠性,特别是在跟踪与生活方式相关的化合物消费和高血压等疾病患病率方面.
科学领域:
- 环境科学 环境科学
- 流行病学 流行病学
- 数据科学数据科学数据科学
背景情况:
- 基于废水的流行病学 (WBE) 面临着由于人口转移的不确定性.
- 现有的人口模型在准确性和可靠性方面存在局限性.
- 准确的人口估计对于WBE数据解释至关重要.
研究的目的:
- 开发和验证一种新的评估模型 (EC模型),用于精确地估计WBE的人口.
- 通过使用中国城市数据,与传统方法对比,评估EC模型的性能.
- 应用EC模型来估计与生活方式相关的化合物消费和高血压患病率.
主要方法:
- 使用评估模型框架和数据特征构建了一个EC模型.
- 从16个中国城市的综合权重系数转化为国家模型.
- 根据人口普查人口数据验证了EC模型,并分析了其变化,偏差和SRMSE.
主要成果:
- 欧洲共同体模型与人口普查数据显示出强烈的相关性 (r2 = 0.98),表明了精确的人口动态.
- 低可变性 (RSD = 9.73%),最小偏差 (-1.12%) 和低SRMSE (14.75%) 证实了可靠的人口估计.
- 北方的消费生活方式化合物和高血压患病率 (26.96%) 比南方 (16.01%) 高.
- 高血压与酒精 (r=0.52) 和尼古丁 (r=0.55) 消费正相关.
结论:
- 与传统模型相比,EC模型为WBE人口估计提供了更可靠的方法.
- 该模型成功估计了中国的与生活方式相关的化合物消费和高血压患病率.
- 通过整合具有代表性的数据集和新的算法,EC模型提高了WBE战略实施可靠性.
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